Russians packed parade clothes, believing they would take Kyiv 2023

“Peter the Great mentioned a Russian window on Europe. The Princeton Athens Center hosted social movements and post-communist politics expert Mark Beissinger on May 29.

This conversation covers the Ukraine war, peace possibilities, and their impact on the international order.

Over a year ago, few expected the Russian invasion to be opposed with such dedication and organization.

Princeton political science professor claims the Russians were so convinced they could attack and conquer Kyiv in three days that victory parades in the Ukrainian capital had been prepared. Parade costumes.

russians-so-confident-theyd-seize-kyiv-they-had-packed-their-parade-uniforms0Last week’s Ukrainian southeast counteroffensive was supposed to transform the situation. Poor start. Beissinger believes the Kremlin demolished Nova Kakhovka Dam on Tuesday, stopping the counteroffensive.

Floods and flooding are preventing Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro River

The professor predicted humanitarian, environmental, and nuclear disasters. The disaster “creates an extremely volatile and dangerous situation at the neighboring Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant” and kills numerous. According to reports, Beissinger predicted a nuclear catastrophe if the reservoir fails.

Beissinger warned us not to disregard President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s aces despite the counteroffensive’s turbulence and Ukraine’s five-to-one numerical disadvantage against Russia.

“Thanks to US and European support, Ukraine has achieved a clear technological advantage, with modern anti-missile defense systems shielding civilians, German-made Leopard tanks piercing Russian lines, and satellite-controlled high-precision missiles targeting the enemy’s supply lines.”

“Ukrainian troops are determined, and know what they are fighting for, while the average Russian is confused and demoralized,” Beissinger claims Russian soldiers are treated like cannon fodder, reducing morale. The expert recommended caution since Ukraine’s Soviet-era planes are still inferior to Russia’s fleet.

Beissinger said that Zelenskyy’s paramilitary Russian organizations’ small-scale drone operations in Russia may change Ukraine. “This war has produced uneven effects on both sides, with millions of Ukrainians forcibly fleeing their homes and entire cities being erased from the map, and Russia remaining grossly unaffected,” he continued.

“Cause psychological discomfort and make the war felt in Russia” is their purpose.

Despite their symbolic importance, Beissinger urged Ukraine against allowing too many of these invasions for fear of Russian retribution or allies’ disapproval of aggression.

Beissinger was asked about Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin’s forecast of “a new revolution” in Russia if the war fails. “There are definitely cracks in the Putin regime, and a lot of bickering is already under way between potential successors,” the Princeton professor said, citing Prigozhin’s inflammatory rhetoric against Russia’s defense minister Sergei Shoigu as further evidence of intense factionalism in the highest ranks.

He dismissed Western hopes of a Putin resignation. “He holds the state machinery together; if he were to be ousted, a war of all against all would ensue within the elite, which nobody is prepared for.”

Even if Russia loses, Professor Beissinger dismissed a widespread uprising against the regime. He said unsuccessful wars might provide the opposition “a political opportunity” to challenge the weaker and delegitimized administration.

He noted that Russia will likely maintain the alternative view of post-war intensified coercion. “I expect Putin to follow Saddam Hussein, who violently suppressed Kurdish and Arab revolts after his defeat in the war against Iran and survived.”

Ukraine’s post-war reality is fluid, unlike Russia’s. Major rebuilding is needed. Putin waving the nuclear wand renders Ukraine unsure. Beissinger fears social fragmentation most.

Unfortunately, increased cohesion will fade with the Russian threat. Since any peace settlement would compel Ukraine to compromise, I foresee further conflicts to split society and complicate post-war realities.

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