National, ACT might govern in a newest political poll 2023

According to the most recent 1News-Kantar political poll, National and ACT could form a coalition government, and Christopher Luxon’s personal popularity has marginally increased.

Since March, National has gained three points in the poll. With Labour losing one percentage point and the Greens losing all four points of support gained in the previous poll, even with Mori Party support they would fall short of governing.

The results would give National 47 seats and ACT 15 seats, one more than the 61-seat threshold required to hold a majority in Parliament.

Assuming they won at least one electorate, Labour would have 46 seats, the Greens would have 9, and Te Pti Mori would have three.

Chris Hipkins lost two points of support as preferred prime minister since the March poll, but still led National’s Chris Luxon, who gained one point, by a margin of 25 percent to 18 percent.

Between February and March, Luxon’s popularity took a five-point blow in the race for the position of favored prime minister.

This most recent survey was conducted from 20 to 24 May, following the publication of the federal budget:

  • National: 37 percent, up 3
  • Labour: 35 percent, down 1
  • ACT: 11 percent, steady
  • Green Party: 7 percent, down 4
  • NZ First: 3 percent, steady
  • Te Pāti Māori: 2 percent, down 1
  • TOP: 1 percent, steady
  • Democracy NZ: 1 percent, steady
  • New Conservative: 1 percent, steady
  • Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party: 1 percent, up 1
  • Undecided: 12 percent, down 1

Preferred PM:

  • Chris Hipkins: 25 percent, down 2
  • Christopher Luxon: 18 percent, up 1
  • David Seymour: 7 percent, up 1
  • Winston Peters: 2 percent, down 1
  • Chloe Swarbrick: 2 percent, up 1
  • Nicola Willis: 1 percent, steady
  • Jacinda Ardern: 1 percent, down 1
  • Rawiri Waititi: 1 percent, steady

The survey questioned 1002 eligible electors, with a margin of error of 3.1% at a confidence interval of 95%.

The previous Kantar survey, conducted in March, revealed a mild downward trend for both Labour and National, with the Greens gaining four points to 11 percent, ACT gaining one point – also to 11 percent – and Te Pti Mori gaining two points to 3 percent.

That would have given Labour and the Greens 60 seats, requiring the support of Te Pti Mori to form a government, while National and ACT would fall short of the 61-seat majority with 57 seats.

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